By Phillip M. Bailey

Kentuckians are set to cast their ballots for statewide offices on Tuesday in an election that will set the table for the fall.

The most watched contest is the four-way Democratic race among state Rep. Rocky Adkins, Attorney General Andy Beshear, former state auditor Adam Edelen and activist Geoff Young.

Whoever wins will likely face Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, the favorite in his primary, in what Democrats believe is the party’s best shot at reclaiming some power in Frankfort.

Primary voters also will have the pick in other key races, including secretary of state, where four candidates on both sides are vying for the seat, and attorney general.

Read this: Who are the Democrats running for governor and how can they win?

What to expect

In all likelihood, we can expect that a small fraction of Kentuckians will make decisions at the polls that will affect all of the state’s residents. And a low turnout can make the potential outcome difficult to measure.

Of the roughly 3.4 million people who are registered, only about 12.5% are projected to turn out, according to the secretary of state’s office. That fits recent trends, such as the 2015 primary election when 399,196 of Kentucky’s 3.1 million registered voters cast ballots.

“Turnout likely will be so low that I do not trust the limited polling data available,” said Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.

But the governor’s horse race on the Democratic side could make a difference, he said.

It is the most high-profile contest, with millions of dollars being spent to raise awareness about the candidates by their campaigns and outside groups.

Check out: Here’s your complete 2019 Kentucky primary elections voter guide

Democrats, who feel emboldened by Bevin’s poor approval ratings, know the importance of picking the right nominee, which could further motivate them to come out.

The candidate with the most motivated supporters holds the edge no matter what polling or fundraising numbers have shown, according to experts.

“Normally, I would expect that Beshear, with his name recognition and his father’s lingering popularity, wins more support from fair-weather voters, in which case low voter participation would hurt him,” Voss said.

“Edelen’s success mobilizing the state’s progressive activists, and his strong ground game reaching out to voters, could bring him a better showing than expected,” he added. “The likely Adkins vote consists of a lot of Kentuckians who have long been in the habit of participating in elections, even during times of low turnout, so conditions next week could bring him an advantage. … I would not want to put any money on this race.”

2019 Kentucky elections: Grimes says low voter turnout for Kentucky elections is ‘not OK’

What to watch

What parts of the state come out the most matters as much as overall turnout projections.

Louisville and Lexington are two Democratic strongholds, with more liberal voters and a larger percentage of minorities, whereas rural areas are predominately white and have more moderate- to conservative-leaning voters.

Adkins launched a 15-county tour — joined by an Eastern Kentucky bluegrass band — this weekend to make his final pitch to voters. He is hitting places like Hopkinsville, Cadiz, Paintsville and Ashland, while avoiding the major metropolitan centers.

“The rural areas of the state will be key for Adkins, so I am sure he wants to appeal to the coal regions of both Eastern and Western Kentucky,” said Dewey Clayton, a University of Louisville political science professor.

Beshear is also crisscrossing the state’s rural regions, however. He and running mate Jacqueline Coleman are spending their time in places like Paducah, Bowling Green, Baxter and Georgetown.

Edelen, who is running with Louisville developer Gill Holland, is keeping focused on turning out those progressives voters. The campaign is staying in the state’s urban areas, canvassing in Louisville, Lexington and Winchester.

“Edelen offers a platform that is attractive to the more urban Democratic voters, but he may find support in some of the rural areas of Eastern and Western Kentucky who like his stance on renewable energy and realize it is the future and not coal,” Clayton said.

Clayton added that Beshear also will appeal in Louisville and Lexington, but among more moderates perhaps in the suburban areas. He said his history of taking on Bevin is also a plus among Democrats, who have a seething disapproval of the governor.

“Beshear may also get support from around the state from Democrats who really want to defeat Gov. Bevin and see Beshear as the Democrat mostly likely to defeat Gov. Bevin in the general election in the fall,” Clayton said.

Republicans also have a few races to be eager about where regional turnout will matter.

Kentucky’s primary election: What to know about voting, candidates and more

Bevin is facing a primary rebellion from three contenders: state Rep. Robert Goforth of East Bernstadt; real estate developer Ike Lawrence of Lexington; and bus driver William Woods of Corinth.

The governor has quarreled with members of his own party since taking office, which has given the Kentucky GOP a bumpy road since its majority took control of the legislature in 2016.

Goforth, who is providing Bevin with the most credible challenge, is depending heavily on support from Eastern Kentucky. He is focusing his message being socially conservative and criticizing Bevin’s leadership style.

Few GOP experts give the freshman legislator a chance, but how much of the vote he receives will tell a tale of just how disliked Bevin is among rank-and-file Republicans.

A survey of 600 likely GOP voters by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, showed Bevin leading Goforth 56% to 18%, with 23% of voters still undecided.

“I’m curious what percentage of the vote Goforth receives,” said former Secretary of State Trey Grayson. “I don’t see him winning, or coming close for that matter. At the end of the day, Republicans will likely come home to Bevin in the fall. That’s what happened in 2015, after all. But it is something to monitor.”

The GOP also has a must-watch primary for attorney general between Daniel Cameron, of Louisville, and state Sen. Wil Schroder, of Wilder, who spout nearly identical views on the issues that matter to base voters.

The Cygnal poll gives a slight edge to Cameron, who is running an aggressive attack ad strategy that is bombarding Schroder in mailers and TV spots reminding Republicans that he used to be a Democrat. That survey had Cameron up by 7 percentage points.

Schroder and his supporters — many of whom are fellow state legislators — have slammed Cameron, who served as legal counsel to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, for turning the race negative.

But with 55% of all Republican primary voters undecided, Schroder, who represents faithfully conservative Northern Kentucky, cannot be counted out.

What it means for Democrats

Kentucky Democrats have been hemorrhaging at the ballot box since 2011, when former Gov. Steve Beshear was reelected. They’ve lost the House and hold just two of the seven constitutional offices, both of which are open seats this year.

The two offices Democrats do control — attorney general and secretary of state — are positions where Kentucky’s direction could change dramatically in GOP hands.

The Republican candidates for attorney general are both opponents of abortion rights, which means they will be less likely to challenge restrictive measures in court. And those running for secretary of state are advocates of voters having a photo ID.

More: What the secretary of state candidates think about a state voter ID law

But Democrats have strong contenders in both of those races that party leaders hope can keep what they already have.

Former Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who also served as House speaker, is running unopposed in the primary. Miss America 2000 Heather French Henry, who is well-known throughout the state, is the favorite in a four-way battle for secretary of state.

The 2019 races also represent a major turning point that could either stop the bleeding or keep Democrats in the minority for a generation, according to experts.

Next year will be one in which the governor must sign off on new legislative congressional maps that, assuming there’s no court challenge, will shape those districts for a decade. It makes it easier for the GOP-controlled legislature to have Bevin or one their own rather than a Democratic governor, who would likely work to keep them in check.

“It would be hard for the Democrats to find a better election year than 2019, if they are going to turn this state’s politics around,” said Voss, the UK professor. “Lose this one, and the Democratic Party likely will be sitting on the bench until some kind of scandal or economic crisis forces voters to turn to them for relief.

What it means for Republicans

Republicans hold a firm grip in the General Assembly, and are confident in their chances at sweeping Kentucky’s constitutional offices.

President Donald Trump’s popularity, McConnell’s success in the judiciary and the state’s improved economy are all incentives for their voters to keep up the momentum.

Bevin’s unpopularity and refusal to stay on script makes the governor’s race more competitive than it should be, according to many experts.

But Grayson, the former Republican secretary of state, said in the best-case scenario of a GOP sweep, his party will have number of talented constitutional officers with potential for higher office, such as agriculture commissioner candidate Ryan Quarles and treasurer candidate Allison Ball, who can take up the torch.

“Kentucky Republicans could have an outstanding farm team if it were to capture all of the constitutional offices, and similarly, prevent the Democrats from have an officeholder with a statewide portfolio — making their task in a state growing redder even more difficult,” he said.